[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 89.8W AT 08/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 78 NM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MOVING W AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN
83W-91W. OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN
82W-94W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N35W TO 18N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N35W AND AN EARLIER 08/0006 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. A MAXIMUM
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ALSO OBSERVED BETWEEN
30W-37W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 09N-16N
BETWEEN 33W-39W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N54W TO 24N51W MOVING W-NW AT 15-20
KT. THE REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
AS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N70W TO 19N66W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS A MOISTURE
MAXIMUM IS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN
63W-70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-20N
BETWEEN 63W-70W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W
WHICH IS PROVIDING MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MAXIMUM
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
16N25W TO 12N35W TO 09N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXTENDS FROM 09N40W TO 07N49W TO 09N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING WHICH IS LOCATED NORTH OF TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 23N89W. AT THE SURFACE...THE
PRESENCE OF ERNESTO IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CYCLONIC WINDS S OF 25N
BETWEEN 83W-97W. N OF 25N...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG
28N EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W THEN SW TO 23N99W. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS WITH AXIS FROM 38N82W TO 30N91W. MUCH OF THIS CURRENT
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AS ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE SW GULF
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 28N OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. WHILE THE CORE CONVECTION OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
86W-91W...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA PACIFIC COAST W OF 82W AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...EL
SALVADOR...BELIZE...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PORTION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
OUTFLOW FROM ERNESTO TRAILS TO THE EAST IN A TRAJECTORY ALONG
20N83W TO 16N74W TO 20N69W AND INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-82W.
FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W AND CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 62W-71W.
THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N71W
AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTH
OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N65W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
29N81W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS N OF 30N W OF A LINE FROM 32N76W TO 30N79W. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N53W THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW TO
26N63W TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 21N70W. THIS OVERALL TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N64W TO 23N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 61W-66W...AND FROM 18N-23N
BETWEEN 65W-72W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE LARGELY INFLUENCES THE AREA N OF
19N W OF 60W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
REMNANTS OF FLORENCE S OF 24N ALONG 53W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED
BY A STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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