[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080731 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION..CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2012

CORRECTION TO GIVE ERNESTO HURRICANE TITLE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 88.3W AT 08/0600 UTC OR
ABOUT 15 NM N OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 140 NM ESE OF
CAMPECHE MEXICO MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 85W-90W. OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
12N-23N BETWEEN 82W-94W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N33W TO 17N32W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N33W AND AN EARLIER 08/0006 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. A MAXIMUM
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ALSO OBSERVED BETWEEN
25W-35W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N32W TO 09N37W.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N52W TO 24N49W MOVING W-NW AT 15-20
KT. THE REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
AS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 51W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N67W TO 17N64W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS A MOISTURE
MAXIMUM IS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN
61W-69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN
60W-68W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W WHICH
IS PROVIDING MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W TO
12N33W TO 09N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS
FROM 09N38W TO 07N46W TO 07N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF
THIS GULF BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS LOCATED NORTH OF HURRICANE
ERNESTO AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 29N91W TO 19N83W OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESENCE OF ERNESTO IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CYCLONIC WINDS S OF 24N BETWEEN 80W-95W. N OF
24N...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 28N EXTENDS FROM THE
SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NW GULF NEAR
28N95W THEN S-SW TO 23N96W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING OVER THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS FROM 38N83W TO
32N91W. MUCH OF THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS ERNESTO IS FORECAST
TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE SW GULF AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ALONG 28N OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ERNESTO HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. WHILE THE CORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 85W-90W...OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PORTION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE OUTFLOW FROM ERNESTO TRAILS TO THE EAST IN A
TRAJECTORY ALONG 21N83W TO 17N75W TO 20N69W AND INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 14N
BETWEEN 69W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS N OF 17N. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W AND
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF
68W. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N73W
AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
28N80W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS N OF 30N W OF 78W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE SW NORTH ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N54W
THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS S-SW TO 30N60W TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. THIS OVERALL
TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N60W TO
25N64W AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH FARTHER SW FROM 26N71W TO
21N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N28N BETWEEN
60W-64W...AND FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 65W-76W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE LARGELY
INFLUENCES THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 60W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND REMNANTS OF FLORENCE S OF 24N ALONG 52W.
THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N43W AND
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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