[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071804 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

CORRECTION FOR ANY REFERENCE TO ERNESTO AS A TROPICAL STORM...
SHOULD BE EITHER ERNESTO OR HURRICANE ERNESTO

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAS INTENSIFIED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH
IN ORDER TO BECOME HURRICANE ERNESTO AT 07/1800 UTC.
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO AT 07/1800 UTC IS NEAR
18.5N 85.5W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 159 NM TO THE EAST
OF CHETUMAL MEXICO IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
ERNESTO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 12 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 22N IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO
THE WEST OF 80W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N28W TO 15N29W
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N19W...IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W...
AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W TO THE SOUTH
OF 21N. THE 1010 MB POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 17N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 49W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W...TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 17N60W TO 15N64W TO 13N70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W
TO 15N22W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
12N19W...TO 10N37W AND 11N46W. THE ITCZ IS INDISTINCT AT THE
MOMENT. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 20W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
25N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN
82W IN FLORIDA AND 86W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON TOP OF MEXICO NEAR 22N100W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IN GENERAL COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF
91W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT EMANATES FROM
HURRICANE ERNESTO COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 91W.
SOME UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IMPINGING UPON THE
FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 22N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 24N75W BEYOND 30N80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT ERNESTO
AS IT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
IN 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 15N TO 22N IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO THE WEST OF 80W...WITH HURRICANE ERNESTO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N70W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO 15N70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W...SEPARATE AND
AWAY FROM HURRICANE ERNESTO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W...TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM 17N60W TO 15N64W TO 13N70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 07/1200 UTC FOR CURACAO WAS
0.50 INCHES...FOR GUADELOUPE 0.30 INCHES...FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO 0.49 INCHES...AND FOR TRINIDAD 0.84 INCHES.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N73W...
TO 10N80W TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA...BEYOND 10N85W IN NORTHWESTERN
COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO BE RELATED TO ERNESTO IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS
FOR 24 HOURS...AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
IN THE CENTRAL SECTIONS FOR 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 24N75W BEYOND 30N80W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
22N70W TO 15N70W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 23N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W...AND FROM 22N
TO 27N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 34N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT
07/1200 UTC FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS 2.93 INCHES.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N59W 25N61W 20N63W.

A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N39W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
26N TO THE EAST OF 54W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS RELATED TO POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
FLORENCE. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE
WEST OF 70W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
IN 48 HOURS WITHIN 270 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 13N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net