[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 84.4W AT 07/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 154 NM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS AND ABOUT 219 NM
E OF BELIZE CITY MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 79W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 79W-92W. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N28W TO 18N27W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N28W AND AN EARLIER 06/2248 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. A MAXIMUM
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ALSO OBSERVED BETWEEN
23W-31W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM
09N-12N BETWEEN 27W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N46W TO 20N44W MOVING W-NW AT 15-20
KT. THE REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
AS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 45W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N64W TO 19N64W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS
NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 58W-67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 17N61W TO 11N66W AND S OF 12N BETWEEN 66W-70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
16N22W TO 12N28W TO 11N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXTENDS FROM 11N40W TO 09N54W TO 10N60W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N97W CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF 90W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W AND EXTENDS AN
AXIS NORTHWARD TO OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS FAIRLY BROAD AND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...MOISTURE AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTER OCCURRING FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 94W-98W.
FURTHER SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
GULF IS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 30N90W TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR
23N98W. PRIMARILY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING WITH EXPECTED
STRENGTHENING OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY S OF
24N WITH THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OVER THE EASTERN
GULF THIS MORNING...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM 27N86W
TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N87W AND ALONG WITH MAXIMUM MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF A
LINE FROM MOBILE BAY NEAR 30N88W TO 19N92W. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS LARGELY TIED TO THE FAR OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LOOKING
AHEAD...ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE
NORTH ALONG 28N/29N THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST. ERNESTO REMAINS MOVING ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SW NORTH ATLC AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. CONVECTION WITH
ERNESTO REMAINS RATHER SPREAD OUT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA/CENTRAL AMERICA REGION
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE AREA FROM
14N-23N BETWEEN 79W-92W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS TRAIL TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 64W-79W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 11N63W THAT IS
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN.
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W MOVES BENEATH THIS ENVIRONMENT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 18N
BETWEEN 50W-65W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING WEST OF THIS
AREA CENTERED NEAR 22N70W. A BROAD-SCALE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS
ANALYZED FROM 30N59W TO 23N68W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 57W-62W...AND
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING
W-SW FROM A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N61W TO THE NW BAHAMAS
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 23N33W. THIS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING LARGELY SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N36W WITH INFLUENCE N OF 20N
BETWEEN 14W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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