[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 062352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 07/0000 UTC IS NEAR
16.5N 82.1W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF
ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS...OR ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF BELIZE.
ERNESTO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
76W-82W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE
CENTER FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 82W-89W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1010 MB TROPICAL LOW IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
12N24N. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
19N19W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 25W-29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N41W WITH 1009
MB MOVING W AT 10 KT. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
41W-47W.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N60W TO
10N63W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
63W-67W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 60W-65W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT
12N26W TO 10N40W TO 8N49W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N49W TO
TRINIDAD AT 11N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 25W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N86W 27N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E
TEXAS N OF 29N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N
BETWEEN 81W-83W. ELSEWHERE...THE OUTER FEEDER BANDS OF ERNESTO
IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N E OF 87W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR
24N94W MOVING W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER E MEXICO FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 94W-100W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER N FLORIDA.
ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
...AND S GULF DUE TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ERNESTO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR BELIZE AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
CUBA E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA
TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 7N77W 10N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N59W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 27N60W 20N66W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N37W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN E OF
55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N71W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION E OF THE S BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 66W-70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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