[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 061437
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012
1100 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012

ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS
NOW...AND ALL THAT REMAINS OF FLORENCE IS AN EXPOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 110
MILES WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  CONSEQUENTLY...FLORENCE
IS ASSESSED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  A SURROUNDING DRY/STABLE AIR MASS...COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION IN 5 DAYS OR LESS.

THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...BUT AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER RATE OF FORWARD MOTION...275/13.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN SPEED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 16.4N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 16.5N  42.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/1200Z 16.9N  46.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/0000Z 17.6N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1200Z 18.5N  54.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1200Z 21.1N  60.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1200Z 24.2N  66.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
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