[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 81.0W AT 06/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 127 NM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/
HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 329 NM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-20N BETWEEN 76W-81W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 38.8W AT
06/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 1400 NM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DEPRESSION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 36W-43W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N20W TO 18N18W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. EXAMINING LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR TIME
SECTION ANALYSES FROM DAKAR SENEGAL...IT APPEARS THIS WAVE
EMERGED OFF THE COAST AROUND 05/0000 UTC. A WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS
CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N20W AS
A FEW WESTERLY WINDS WERE DEPICTED ON A RECENT 05/2308 UTC ASCAT
PASS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MAXIMUM VALUES
FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N59W TO 15N56W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS IT REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ.
HOWEVER...EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...MAXIMUM
VALUES OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N57W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 53W-62W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
11N22W TO 12N30W TO 08N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXTENDS FROM 08N39W TO 07N44W TO 11N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 22W-26W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N94W IMPACTS THE ENTIRE
GULF THIS MORNING AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
CIRCULATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 96W-98W...AND FROM
23N-27N BETWEEN 89W-98W. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
IS SLOWLY ERODING DUE TO THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A VERY BROAD AREA OF SURFACE
TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM ERNESTO ALONG 81W/82W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
TO THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH OVERALL DIFFLUENCE
PREVAILING ALONG 80W AS WELL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING MOSTLY NORTH OF ERNESTO'S CORE CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM
22N-26N BETWEEN 77W-83W. ANOTHER AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
AND TSTMS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
STRETCHING WESTWARD TO NEAR MOBILE BAY . LOOKING AHEAD...THE
SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH
AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS ERNESTO TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND
PRIMARILY CONTAIN NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY COMPONENTS THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS WEST. ERNESTO REMAINS MOVING ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. WHILE RECENT CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ACROSS
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF JAMAICA AND
CUBA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 76W-86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS TRAIL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA WITH THE CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY OVER JAMAICA...
CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR ALOFT IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 58W WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ASIDE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL
ATLC MENTIONED ABOVE...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 31N84W TO THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N75W. THIS RIDGE
AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
ADJACENT FLORIDA PENINSULA COASTAL WATERS FROM 22N-31N W OF THE
BAHAMAS AND W OF 79W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 34N48W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM
THE LOW ALONG 22N62W TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
25N70W. THIS LARGELY REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE AS VERY WEAK AND
BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING N OF 24N BETWEEN 52W-64W WHERE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
22N-27N BETWEEN 54W-59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1025 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 38N22W AND 34N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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