[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 79.6W AT 06/0000
UTC OR ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
JAMAICA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 73W-80W. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N  36.7W AT 05/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING
W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. A
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER
FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 38W-39W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 35W-42W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
EXTENDS FROM 14N53W TO 7N58W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO
8N20W 8N30W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES W OF FLORENCE FROM
12N41W TO 11N47W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N47W TO 12N55W TO
THE COAST OF E VENEZUELA AT 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W AFRICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
12W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
17W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N86W 27N86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 82W-88W.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S
FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 26N91W MOVING W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE NW GULF...S TEXAS
...AND LOUISIANA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE N GULF STATES. ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ERNESTO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CUBA E OF 82W. FURTHER S...
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA
RICA ALONG 9N74W 9N80W 10N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RESIDUAL ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... SW FLOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW CARIBBEAN
DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N91W. THIS FLOW IS
ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA. EXPECT ERNESTO TO BE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS IN 24 HOURS WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N60W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N52W 24N56W.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N37W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN E OF
45W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N71W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 53W-66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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