[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 76.0W AT 05/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 187 NM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 417 NM E OF
CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER MOVING W AT
19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 71W-75W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER
OF THE STORM ACROSS HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 34.2W AT 05/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 590 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 13
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 33W-37W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N52W TO 15N49W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS
BETWEEN 42W-58W. HOWEVER...EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...A MAXIMUM OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS
BETWEEN 46W-53W. ALSO 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES A VERY
WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALONG 50W. MOST OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
HOWEVER ARE WEST OF THE WAVE AND LIKELY INFLUENCING TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO INSTEAD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO
11N21W THEN RESUMES NEAR 13N36W TO 11N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 11N42W TO 10N51W TO 06N58W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 14W-22W...
AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N43W TO 13N50W TO
11N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N88W AND CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE NW GULF WATERS. AT THE SURFACE
HOWEVER...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N82W TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR
21N97W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JACKSONVILLE TO TAMPA BAY.
MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC WATERS...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING E OF 84W. AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD IMPACTING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 88W-96W. GENERALLY LIGHT E TO SE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE GULF AS THE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ALONG 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS WEST. ERNESTO REMAINS MOVING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 15N66W AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGER
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS.
WHILE CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO...SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORM WITHIN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 69W-74W IMPACTING HISPANIOLA...
AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 74W-79W IMPACTING JAMAICA. EXAMINING
EXPERIMENTAL RAINFALL MODEL DATA...OPEN WATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO...WITH THE CONTINUED
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA AND INLAND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI. AS ERNESTO SKIRTS SOUTH OF JAMAICA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. ELSEWHERE...DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING W OF 80W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS VERY DRY AIR FROM 11N-21N
BETWEEN 78W-85W AND IT WILL LIKELY BE A PLAYER DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS ERNESTO MOVES INTO AND MODIFIES THIS
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC
MENTIONED ABOVE...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 30N82W
TO THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N66W. THIS RIDGE AXIS AND THE
ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 26N-32N W OF 76W...AND MUCH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OF ERNESTO GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 65W-76W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N49W AND
EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 25N55W TO 28N72W. THIS
LARGELY REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE AS VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING N
OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-65W WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 49W-71W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 34N35W. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE REMAINS ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 19N-22N
BETWEEN 30W-39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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