[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 65.6W AT 04/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 275 NM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 690 NM
ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MOVING W AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SE
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 62W-68W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REACH EVEN
FARTHER S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 58W-69W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO.

THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WAS UPGRADED
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 04/0300 UTC. T.D. SIX IS CENTERED
NEAR 13.8N 27.8W OR ABOUT 210 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 26W-30W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 14N40W TO 8N42W MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE FROM 12N37W TO 11N43W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 21N17W EXTENDING TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N24W
AND RESUMES W OF T.D. SIX NEAR 12N31W THEN ALONG 12N35W S OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO 6N45W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 28N-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS BUT IS GIVING WAY TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF
CENTERED NEAR 24N84W. THE DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER FEATURES
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90
NM OF LINE FROM 28N85W TO 25N90W AND INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA E OF 83W. OTHERWISE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO THE S TEXAS COAST. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LIFT N TO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF BY
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH E OF
FLORIDA OVER THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL TRACK W ACROSS
FLORIDA AND INTO THE E GULF FROM LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MON AND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TUE AND WED. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC
WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH. TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY INTO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS THE
NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. THE UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-85W. THE MONSOON
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA
TO S NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES W THROUGH SAT THEN TURN MORE
WNW BECOMING A MINIMAL HURRICANE MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUE/WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND
32N77W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT 04/0300 UTC FROM 31N78W
THROUGH A 1015 MB LOW W OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 25N79W TO THE
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM
OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 30N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N46W ALONG 25N58W
TO A SECOND SMALLER UPPER LOW NEAR 30N66W TO BEYOND 34N69W  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 25N62W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN
48W-59W. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC
ANCHORED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL LIFT N THROUGH MON. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS
EXTENDS WILL MOVE SLOWLY W AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SAT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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