[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 03/1800 UTC
IS NEAR 13.7N 62.3W. ERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD 18 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 55 KNOTS. ERNESTO IS ABOUT 140 KM TO THE WEST OF SAINT
LUCIA...AND ABOUT 660 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN IN
PUERTO RICO. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND NEARBY
ISLANDS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...ALONG 18N23W 15N24W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N25W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS
MAY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE. THE WAVE HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS IDENTITY IN THE
IMAGERY OF THE LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM 20N IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...REACHING SOUTHERN
BELIZE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
16N17W...TO THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
12N25W...10N31W 7N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N37W TO 7N41W
AND 6N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W AND FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 33W AND 38W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N78W COASTAL CAROLINA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR 27N81W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
TO A 21N84W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N76W 27N77W 23N79W. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORMING
NEAR 24N78W ALONG THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC FOR NASSAU
IN THE BAHAMAS WAS 1.26 INCHES. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF
CUBA TO THE WEST OF 70W IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO CUBA BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND 83W...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 21N IN BROAD SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W FROM 20N IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD. THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...REACHING SOUTHERN BELIZE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 18N...

THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING
AROUND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 29N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N...FROM 73W/74W IN COLOMBIA
TO 79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 83W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF
11N BETWEEN 75W IN COASTAL COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH
OF PANAMA AND TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 5N TOWARD LAND
TO THE EAST OF 84W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 75W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...AND FOR THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO A 29N65W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N61W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N
TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N45W...TO 22N50W AND 15N50W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N55W 27N59W 24N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO
THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W.RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W...AND FROM 25N TO 29N
BETWEEN 53W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 43W
AND 54W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 32N35W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N62W
TO 28N71W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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