[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
111 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 61.5W AT
03/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM WSW OF ST. LUCIA AND ABOUT
22 NM WNW OF ST. VINCENT MOVING W AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER OVER
THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
S OF 12N BETWEEN 56W-62W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 54W-62W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 152 NM
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE
03/0600 UTC ANALYSIS. THE WAVE IS ALONG 14N23W TO A 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 11N24W. WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 24W-29W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 15N23W TO 11N23W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 9 TO 13 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM NEAR 14N33W
TO 7N37W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND IS BEING UNDERCUT BY DRIER AIR OVER THE S
PORTION OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 10N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N86W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
NEAR 15N88W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 17N W OF 84W TO INLAND
OVER W HONDURAS...E GUATEMALA...AND S BELIZE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W EXTENDING ALONG 14N20W THROUGH THE NEWLY ADDED
1009 MB LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N24W CONTINUING ALONG 11N28W TO
E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS STARTS
NEAR 6N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 25N-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER S
TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A 1014 MB HIGH
ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-29N
BETWEEN 85W-92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT BY SAT
AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUE. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF LATE SAT/SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO MOVING OVER OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS
OVER W CUBA JUST E OF HAVANA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CIEGO DE
AVILA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR
19N81W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150
NM OF LINE FROM 14N81W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N77W INCLUDING THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST
N OF THE MONA PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
ACROSS A PORTION OF PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 78W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W
THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN BEFORE TURNING ON A MORE WNW TRACK SAT
NIGHT THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN AS A MINIMAL
HURRICANE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 32N78W ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN JUST
E OF HAVANA GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 29N80W TO
33N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT 03/0900 UTC FROM 30N74W
ALONG 28N76W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS ALONG 24N78W THEN
CONTINUING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR CIEGO DE AVILA GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
150/175 NM OF LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 22N77W TO 30N73W. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 29N BETWEEN 60W-77W AND IS
ANCHORED JUST N OF THE MONA PASSAGE. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N45W ALONG
27N58W TO A SECOND SMALLER UPPER LOW NEAR 30N65W TO BEYOND
34N67W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 62W-72W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 30N56W TO 24N60W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 53W-57W. OTHERWISE A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A PAIR OF 1023 MB HIGHS
WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN
DUST CONTINUES TO EMERGE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
EVENING THROUGH SAT BEFORE MOVING W OF THE AREA SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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