[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE BECAME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT
02/2100 UTC...CENTERED AT 03/0000 UTC NEAR 13.3N 57.4W OR ABOUT
205 MI...330 KM E OF BARBADOS MOVING W AT 19 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM FROM THE CENTER OVER THE SW QUADRANT. A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER FROM
8N-16N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...ANALYZED
FROM 14N31W THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 6N34W MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
ANALYZED FROM 21N83W TO OFF THE WRN COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
9N84W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS INLAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND FAR ERN TROPICAL PACIFIC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF WEST AFRICA
ENTERING THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ALONG JUST S OF DAKAR AND
CONTINUING WSW ALONG 11N21W 10N31W 5N37W TO 6N44W...WHERE THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO 9N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 18W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 40-80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA...AROUND THE
BROAD OMEGA UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS PUSHING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND
NE BASINS PROVIDING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A
IMAGINARY LINE EXTENDING FROM 30N87W TO 25N90W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N87W.
WITH THIS IN MIND...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONSTANT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTS N OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND N OF
JAMAICA N OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-78W. THE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED TO
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS EXTENDING TO ERN
CUBA. THIS AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE W ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE SRN WATERS OF CUBA TONIGHT. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED
NE OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N69W. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING THE CONVECTION MENTIONED
ABOVE. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE FAR SW BASIN...JUST
OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 79W-83W...RELATED
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN COLOMBIA ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR ALOFT
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE ERN
CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WRN ATLC SUPPORTING A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
28N75W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W GENERATING
A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N BETWEEN 72W-80W. THE OVERALL ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER
TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NE OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
NEAR 20N69W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N54W TO
22N57W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN WITH A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS
NEAR 31N38W AND 32N32W. METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC WITH THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION WITHIN 300 NM OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICAN N OF
DAKAR. THE WRN SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS
NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS AND N-CENTRAL CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net