[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AT 02/1800 UTC IS NEAR
13.1N 55.3W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD 17 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
40 KNOTS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND TO BE NEAR THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS. PLEASE
READ THE NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO
13N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W...AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUYANA AND
VENEZUELA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 7N TO 15N.
THIS WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN LONG-TERM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE IT LEFT FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 34W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W...TO THE
SOUTH OF 24N...FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ACROSS CUBA...
SOUTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN
80W AND 86W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE
UPPER LEVEL 32N80W 15N89W TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL SENEGAL
NEAR 12N17W...TO 11N20W 9N30W 7N34W AND 7N40W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 7N40W TO 8N46W AND 11N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
8N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 26W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 31W
AND 32W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE 24N80W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS
GIVEN WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N80W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 28N79W TO 24N81W IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...TO 18N87W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO 15N89W IN WESTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...MOVING
AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N87W.

ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 94W.

THE NORTHERN END OF THE 82W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 18N...

THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 21N69W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 29N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 63W AND 78W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 17N69W TO THE PENINSULA
DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 16N78W 14N79W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N...FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND
84W SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 77W
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...
TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA...
FROM 4N TO 8N TO THE EAST OF 85W.

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW EXISTS...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA...WHILE
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N
TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO A 29N64W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N61W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 26N61W
TO 21N57W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 27N63W
TO 22N58W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N45W...TO 22N48W AND 16N50W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N55W 25N55W 21N54W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 42W AND 57W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 32N35W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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