[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE SURFACE LOW IN THE TROPICAL ATLC HAS NOW BECOME TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE. AS OF 0000 UTC...T.D. FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR
12.4N 49.8W...ABOUT 660 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...MOVING
WNW AT 16 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB WITH MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
47W-51W. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND
WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF T.D. FIVE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N30W TO 8N30W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE W SIDE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLEARING
IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND WIDESPREAD DUST TO THE N OF THE
WAVE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
26W-30W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM 25N74W TO 11N77W MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES ON THE W
SIDE OF A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION HAVE FORMED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 76W-79W ACROSS JAMAICA...AND FROM 20N-21N
BETWEEN 76W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALSO FARTHER E FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 67W-74W ACROSS MUCH OF
HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN
65W-74W ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN BAHAMAS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA AT 19N16W OVER ATLC WATERS ALONG 8N30W 10N43W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS E OF WHAT IS NOW T.D. FIVE ALONG 11N52W TO 7N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 13W-19W...FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 34W-37W...AND FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 56W-59W. STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO S OF THIS AREA ACROSS
INLAND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N88W IS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS
AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE HIGH
CENTER FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 86W-93W ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NE GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF S FLORIDA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS MOSTLY CLEAR DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE BASIN CENTERED OVER
TEXAS...WHICH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SE GULF LATER
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS BRINGING THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MUCH OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS FAIRLY DRY BESIDES A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH THE COUNTRIES TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER NRN
COLOMBIA. A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE
NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD DRAWING MOISTURE BEHIND IT. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF T.D. FIVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OF INLAND OVER
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAHAMAS S OF 26N BETWEEN 64W-75W ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF MOISTURE TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 31N65W IS ALSO SPORTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 58W-61W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NE CENTERED NEAR 37N56W SUPPORTING A 1024
MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N60W. FARTHER E...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 28N45W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 33N48W TO
26N55W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING
AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH...WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS. THE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 22N32W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FARTHER TO THE
N...N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF
AFRICA TO NEAR 40W...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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