[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N44W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
10N45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 43W-48W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW/WAVE IS ABOUT 870 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 TO 17 KT. INTERESTS IN THE
WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
15N26W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 11N27W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE N PORTION OF THE
WAVE IS IN DRIER AIR DUE TO SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE E ATLC.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 73W/74W FROM 23N INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS HAITI 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 16N16W EXTENDING ALONG 13N21W THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE CONTINUING
ALONG 10N32W TO 11N37W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE 1012 MB LOW IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE NEAR 10N47W 10N53W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 52W58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN
25W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF N OF LINE FROM NAPLES
FLORIDA ALONG 22N88W TO TAMPICO MEXICO AND ANCHORED OVER NE
TEXAS/S OKLAHOMA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR S GULF
FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST S OF CUBA ACROSS THE
YUCATAN TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN NW TO TUXPAN MEXICO. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS AT 01/0900 UTC IN THE W ATLC TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PANAMA
CITY FLORIDA AND THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS OFF SE LOUISIANA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 25N E OF 91W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1016 MB HIGH
NEAR 24689W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER
THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE SW COAST OF CUBA NEAR THE ISLE
OF YOUTH EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH SW ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND EXTENDING AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W AND E
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND W CUBA INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ALONG 9N ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W
OF 75W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI AND W OF THE AREA ON SAT. THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL MOVE INTO
THE FAR E CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND SUN...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NE
FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28 BETWEEN 77W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH AT
01/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1011 MB LOW OFF THE NORTH/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N80W ACROSS FLORIDA S OF
ST. AUGUSTINE TO NEAR FORT MYERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS THE
N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 28N76W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA
S OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-75W AND IS ANCHORED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE.
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N44W
AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO
25N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 43W-61W. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A 1023 MB HIGH JUST E OF BERMUDA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE E
ATLC FROM 16N-28N E OF 40W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE W ATLC THROUGH SUN. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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