[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA
BISSAU NEAR 12N15W TO 6N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES
ALONG 3N32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO COVER THE
ENTIRE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING. THESE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
FILTER DOWN TO SURFACE SUPPORTING A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N85W WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...SSE
WINDS TO PURELY RETURN FLOW IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS UP TO 25 KT NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE MIAMI WEATHER OFFICE
INDICATES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ENTERING THE FAR SE GULF
INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. THESE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING CENTERED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST MORE
CONVECTION WILL ENTER THROUGH THIS REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE NW
BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC TURNING FLOWS AROUND A TROUGH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 20N80W TO 13N80W...AS WELL AS A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO WRN PANAMA WITHIN 45-75 NM OFF
THE COAST. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
74W-82W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND CUBA AND JAMAICA.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KTS...FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD TO SEA
LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED WATER SPOUTS ARE LIKELY WITHIN
THE CONVECTIVE REGION. SEAS 8-10 FEET IN EAST SWELL ARE FORECAST
FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUOUS CONVECTION OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AS THE CONVECTION LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CUBA TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NW BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE WEATHER ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO DECREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUS DUE TO FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES OVER
SATURATED TERRAIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THUS...THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED OVER THE SW ATLC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE NRN COASTAL
WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA W OF 65W S OF 28N. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO A BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING CENTERED IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALSO PROVIDING
FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT OVER THE CONVECTIVE REGION. SHORT
RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THIS REGION AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE NW BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS.
FARTHER EAST...A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 30N62W TO 22N66W WITH LIMITED CONVECTION IS THE VICINITY OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. SIMILARLY...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 19N39W TO 14N42W WITH LIMITED
CONVECTION IS THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N11W EXTENDING SW TO 25N20W DISSIPATING
TO 24N28W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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