[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA BUT DOES NOT ENTER
THE E TROPICAL ATLC. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N11W ALONG
4N23W TO 2N38W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 17W TO
ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 14W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA SSW ACROSS THE E GULF TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO TO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W ATLC
ACROSS THE GULF TO 90W AND IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND BY A
1019 MB HIGH JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR TAMPA. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE N
GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE
GULF GIVING THE AREA CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO THE N GULF COAST ON SAT THEN SHIFT N OF
AREA ON SUN. A BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE W INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA SUN AND CONTINUE W TO THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO CUTS ACROSS
THE FAR W CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BETWEEN 45W-80W AND ANCHORED OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N77W ALONG 15N81W JUST W OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS NEAR 20N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM OF LINE FROM 10N81W TO OVER
CUBA AND HAITI NEAR 21N77W. THIS IS LEAVING THE FAR W AND E
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT W AND THROUGH MON AND BE
WELL W OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AND WILL
DIMINISH SOME SUN THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH ABOUT 300 NM ENE OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE W AND CENTRAL S OF 32N BETWEEN
45W-80W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN
70W-80W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 30N BETWEEN 48W-54W
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING TO 25N64W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OVER
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N23W TO 16N35W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N11W EXTENDING W ALONG 28N19W TO 28N27W
DISSIPATING TO 28N34W AND A SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER S EXTENDING
FROM 20N33W TO 14N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 20N29W TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 17N38W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO
31N ON SAT THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT E SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PASS THROUGH BERMUDA ON MON AND STALL OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC ON TUE. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A
NEW TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN AND MOVE W
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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