[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2335 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG
3N32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. ISOLATED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 14W-30W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 300 NM OFF THE COAST OF COTE D'IVOIRE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO COVER THE
ENTIRE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING. THESE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
FILTER DOWN TO SURFACE SUPPORTING A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF
THE WESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N83W WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WHILE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED NEAR THE HIGH CENTER...SSE
WINDS TO PURELY RETURN FLOW IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE
TEXAS COAST. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOW FOCUSED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WATERS...AS A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 74W-84W. THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR
11N77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
NEAR 17N82W. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS...FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO SEA LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED WATER SPOUTS ARE LIKELY
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE REGION. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET ARE FORECAST TO
EVOLVE TONIGHT FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 64W-80W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE
CONVECTION REGION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUOUS CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION AND
EXPANDING NNW ACROSS CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TURNING THE ATTENTION TO HISPANIOLA. THE WEATHER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUS DUE TO FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES OVER
SATURATED TERRAIN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AS A
RESULT..AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT N-EASTWARD OVER THE FAR
N-WRN ATLC. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N59W
TO 22N64W WHERE BECOMES DISSIPATING TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE W OF
THE FRONT INFLUENCED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N65W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN ATLC
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N36W TO 15N40W.
WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 15N-23N
BETWEEN 25W-36W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS A STRONGER POLAR
FRONT ENTERS THE REGION EXTENDING FROM 31N16W ALONG 29N23W TO
30N34W WITH ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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