[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N11W ALONG 4N13W TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 2N28W TO 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR
E OF 20W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-16W...AND
FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 20W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA SW ACROSS THE GULF TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT IS INLAND
OVER MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. THIS
SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE N GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR ARE DOMINATING THE GULF GIVING THE AREA CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE W ATLC TO THE TEXAS
COAST LIFTING N TO THE N GULF COAST BY LATE FRI BEFORE BUILDING
OVER THE SE UNITED STATES SAT THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CUTS ACROSS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N77W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N BETWEEN
72W-80W. THE REMNANTS OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W TO
16N75W CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-77W INCLUDING ALL
OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. SOME STATIONS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA HAVE BEING REPORTING CONTINUOUS SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA. THE
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE
COAST FROM 80W IN PANAMA TO 12N IN NICARAGUA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE W ATLC MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS FROM E
OF WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N AND CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N59W EXTENDING ALONG 26N63W TO 22N67W WHERE IT DISSIPATES
TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180/200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY
A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ARE W OF THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
IS GIVING THE W ATLC REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT W OF LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO BEYOND 32N62W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO BEYOND 32N53W FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW THAT LAST NIGHT WAS IN THE E/CENTRAL
ATLC HAS OPENED UP TO AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N26W TO 18N42W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-25N E BETWEEN 26W-39W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC W OF 65W AND IS ANCHORED WELL N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THU
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC SHIFTS NE TOWARD BERMUDA.
TRAILING RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N WILL LIFT N TO 30N BY LATE SAT AS
A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
THEN DISSIPATE INTO MON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG
INTO THE WATERS BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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