[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE APR 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N13W TO 4N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 1N21W
THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 16W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS DOMINATED THE GULF IS MOVING FURTHER
INTO THE W ATLC STILL SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS AT 24/0300 UTC FROM THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER N CUBA NEAR SAN CRISTOBAL ALONG 22N88W
TO 23N92W. ALTHOUGH STRONG SUBSIDENCE A DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE
THE GULF...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM S OF THE FRONT.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020
MB HIGH NEAR 28N95W. SOME SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE SE GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SE OF AREA LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE
NW GULF TONIGHT AND MOVE E TO NEAR TAMPA BAY WED WITH A
STATIONARY RIDGE EXTENDING W TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND THROUGH
FRI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF TUE
NIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC DIPS S OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG
19N71W 15N74W TO 12N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
ANCHORED OVER SE VENEZUELA. THE CONVERGENCE OF UPPER AND LOWER
LEVEL FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THE DISSIPATING FRONT
OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER W
CUBA N OF 21N BETWEEN 81W-86W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DRIFT W REACHING A POSITION FROM HAITI TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LATE WED. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL W OF
TROUGH WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING FURTHER
OVER THE W ATLC STILL SUPPORTING THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ENTERING
THE W ATLC AT 24/0300 UTC NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING ALONG 27N70W
THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 70W
THUS ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N65W ALONG 23N67W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO
THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N71W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 21N-25N WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE REMINDER OF THE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N60W FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM BEYOND 33N47W TO 24N43W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N45W ALONG
29N46W TO 25N44W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E
OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 42W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
ATLC W OF 60W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE
AZORES. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM E OF BERMUDA
TO HISPANIOLA TUE EVENING. THE DISSIPATING FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WILL EXTEND FROM 32N70W TO E
CUBA TUE EVENING. BOTH FRONTS WILL MERGE WED EVENING EXTENDING
FROM BERMUDA TO N OF PUERTO RICO WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
STRETCHING TO HISPANIOLA. THE S PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
W WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E FROM FLORIDA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS WED AND THU THEN TO THE FAR NE PORTION
FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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