[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N15W TO 03N21W TO 04N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS DIPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG 30N85W TO 21N93W
OVER THE SW GULF. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE HAS SUPPORTED A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS NOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
LAST COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION OF FLORIDA
WESTWARD ALONG 26N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI.
WHILE THE PREVIOUS FRONTS PROVIDED FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...
THIS PARTICULAR FRONT REMAINS DRY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS NORTH OF
THE FRONT OBSERVED IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT...STRONGEST E OF
90W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH STABLE CONDITIONS PERSISTING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N69W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MODERATELY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS OCCURRING SE OF A LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 20N76W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N84W. A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ARE DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH THE MORE
ACTIVE EASTERNMOST FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
NEAR 20N75W TO 15N78W TO WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 09N81W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W-76W...AND WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM 11N-18N. S OF 11N...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN 76W-83W. WHILE NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF THIS FRONT...E-SE TRADES CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL EAST OF THE FRONT IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT. SKIES E
OF 73W REMAIN CLEAR AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD IF AT ALL THROUGH
MID-WEEK WHILE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
THE ASSOCIATED TROUGHING EXTENDING INFLUENCE TO 65W CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERNMOST FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N69W AND EXTENDS S-SW ALONG 26N70W TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS THEN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 25N
WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N
AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE S OF 22N BETWEEN
70W-75W. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N72W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N80W. WHILE
THIS FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION-FREE...AN EARLIER
MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 23/1432 UTC DEPICTED STRONG W-NW WINDS
IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 60W WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 55W. THIS RIDGE IS MOSTLY A PART OF THE
LARGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N27W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 35N46W THAT CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N42W
TO 25N45W TO 19N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 23N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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