[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N26W
2N36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 27W-37W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM
5N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 26W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS AT 23/0300 UTC FROM A 1009
MB LOW NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA W ACROSS SE LOUISIANA OVER NEW
ORLEANS TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE A DRY STABLE AIR ALSO DOMINATE THE GULF LEAVING THIS
TO BE A VERY DRY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N92W LEAVING THE GULF WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SE THROUGH THE GULF TONIGHT AND MON. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AND WILL
SE OF GULF MON NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E
THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH INCREASING SE FLOW RETURNING TO THE NW
GULF TUE AND SPREADING E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE WED AS A
RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC DIPS S OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY BETWEEN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO 13N81W THEN W INTO NICARAGUA NEAR EL
BLUFF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 17N INCLUDING JAMAICA AND E
CUBA. A POST FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR
SANTA CLARA TO 18N87W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ARE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ANCHORED OVER VENEZUELA.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA ARE BEING DRAWN N INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY THE UPPER
RIDGE TO WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 72W-79W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN REACHING FROM
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN MON EVENING AND FROM E
HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TUE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG
NW TO N WINDS ARE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME
EASTERLY OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU. EASTERLY
TRADES WILL CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE
W ATLC SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING E
ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 23/0300 UTC NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING ALONG
26N74W ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N.
A POST FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N75W
ALONG 27N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR
SANTA CLARA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 27N76W TO BEYOND
32N72W. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IS TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH JUST N OF THE REGION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM
OF LINE FROM 28N80W TO BEYOND 32N77W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND
32N63W FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE
COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH ABOUT 550 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 10N BETWEEN
35W-55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N40W TO
24N46W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES.
THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. W
ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
MON EVENING AND FROM 32N64W TO HISPANIOLA TUE EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH OVER AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF PUERTO RICO LATE WED INTO THU AS IT THEN BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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