[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Fri Apr 20 12:32:14 CDT 2012


AXNT20 KNHC 201731
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGIONS OF
WEST AFRICA INTO THE ATLC BASIN ACROSS THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE
NEAR 7N12W TO 5N14W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THE
EQUATOR NEAR 24W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 170 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS E OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE CONUS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE BACK SE QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A
WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N85W TO
23N88W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE NE BASIN. WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE DOMINATING
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ERN TEXAS IS MOVING SE INTO THE
NRN GULF. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL ENTER THE NW
GULF TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO NEAR 25 KTS BEHIND
IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL PACIFIC BASIN
INTO INTO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN BASIN ALONG WRN PANAMA TO NRN
COLOMBIA ALONG 9N82W TO NEAR 10N75W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 80 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF ITS AXIS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES 18N58W TO 10N64W GENERATING
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AFFECTING THESE GROUP OF ISLANDS S OF
BARBUDA E OF 64W. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT COVERS A GREAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. CONVERGING
TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED LOW-TOP SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM 31N79W TO 28N80W ASSOCIATED TO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA TO NRN FLORIDA. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GENERATING AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W
OF 75W. OTHERWISE...A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N67W MAINTAINING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 50W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE CENTRAL REGION ALONG 30N45W TO NEAR 25N46W BECOMING A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 22N50W. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS RELATED
TO A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
CENTERED NEAR 37N52W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50-100
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS. A DISSIPATING
1009 MB LOW IS TO THE WEST OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 29N50W
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES OVERTAKES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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