[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191730
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGIONS OF
WEST AFRICA INTO THE ATLC BASIN ACROSS THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
6N10W TO 2N13W 3N23W 2N32W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG
1N37W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NE BASIN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A WEAK NEARLY
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
PANAMA CITY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SSW TO NEAR
26N85W...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE ERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FURTHER INLAND ALONG 21N87W. DOPPLER RADAR
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
OR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA TODAY...BEFORE LOOSING MOMENTUM AND
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE DOMINATING THE GULF W OF THE
FRONT AS A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WRN GULF. A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE NW BASIN N
OF 16N W OF 80W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THE
SRN EXTENSION OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN CONSTANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONVERGING TRADE WIND FLOW
ALONG WITH REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM GUADELOUPE TO 13N75W. THIS FLOW IS ALSO FEEDING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO A 1008 MB LOW ANALYZED INLAND OVER CENTRAL
PANAMA...AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SRN COAST OF
NICARAGUA ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA THROUGH THE SURFACE LOW
TO ERN COLOMBIA. THUS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE SW BASIN S OF 16N W OF W OF 75W. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ANALYZED FROM 17N57W TO 10N60W GENERATING SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS AFFECTING THESE GROUP OF ISLANDS S OF BARBUDA.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERS A
GREAT PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
N-CENTRAL BASIN. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION PENETRATING THE SE BASIN FROM SOUTH
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE COASTAL WATER OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA N OF WEST PALM BEACH. OTHERWISE...AN AMPLIFIED LEVEL
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTS A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR
27N73W MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 57W. A DEEP
OCCLUDED 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N56W. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
...WITH SOME SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM AROUND THE
CENTER. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS WELL DISPLACED TO THE EAST
ENTERING THE REGION ALONG 32N47W TO 23N53W. SCATTERED WEAK TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-150 NM E OF THE FRONT
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ANALYZED FROM 17N57W TO 10N60W GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS S OF 15N W OF 54W TO OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH SW
OF THE AZORES OVERTAKES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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