[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 6N14W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 00N24W 2N39W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO
JUST S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 28W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO JUST S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS DIPS S INTO THE N GULF
SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT AT 19/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE
GULF FROM A 1013 MB LOW NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 24N86W TO
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF
THE FRONT S OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE E OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE DOMINATING THE GULF W OF THE FRONT AS A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH OVER NE ARKANSAS GIVING THE AREA W OF THE FRONT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
THROUGH THE E GULF THROUGH THU. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE W GULF FRI NIGHT AND REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY SAT WITH A LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL BE
IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF ON SUN WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE EXITING THE AREA OF MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N68W ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR DOMINICA INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE INTERACTING THE APPROACHING FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN S OF 22N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BECOME DIFFUSE BEFORE ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN. HIGH
PRESSURE NE OF THE BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS MAINLY OVER THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE SAT BECOMING
DIFFUSE FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS BY LATE SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO BEYOND 32N70W COVERING
THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE SAME
AREA ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 42W-75W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N52W ALONG
28N52W TO 24N56W THEN DISSIPATES TO 23N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 31N46W 23N49W
18N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST W OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 17N57W TO 10N59W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-17N E OF
THE TROUGH TO 48W. A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E
ATLC N OF 15N E OF 44W ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE
AZORES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W ATLC
THROUGH SAT THE SHIFTING NE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
ENTER THE W ATLC ON SUN. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
W ATLC MON. THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THU AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES E THROUGH FRI. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE NE
OUT OF THE AREA SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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