[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171816
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W
TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W 1N23W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1S35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF THE EQUATOR
TO THE EAST OF 4W...FROM 1S TO 3N BETWEEN 9W AND 14W...TO THE
SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W...TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN
28W AND 33W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 2N TO THE WEST OF 47W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 11N54W 9N55W 6N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 46W AND
56W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS CLOSE
TO AND TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS RELATED JUST TO THE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT...THAT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 28N95W TO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE GULF WATERS...OFF THE
COASTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT. OTHER SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 20N94W. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT...AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE THAT
RUNS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEYOND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ABOUT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RELATED TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. THE TROUGH AND RELATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ARE RELATED TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 35N58W UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER. THE SHEAR AXIS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO REMAINS IN THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH 15N60W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 14N70W AND 13N78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
16N60W 15N65W 14N76W...TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR
12N84W. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...AND THE SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO
12 FEET...MOSTLY IN THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 68W...
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N58W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 35W. THE 35N58W CYCLONIC
CENTER AND CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N45W TO 23N46W AND 18N52W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM
18N52W 15N60W TO 14N70W AND 13N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 27N44W 21N50W 19N54W 17N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A SURFACE TROUGH
IS DEVELOPING ALONG 32N56W 28N60W 29N64W 33N66W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 67W. PLEASE REFER TO
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO
12 FEET...RELATED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE 1005 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 32N59W IN 24 HOURS.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT
IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N45W 15N60W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N74W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 25N15W IN THE WESTERN SAHARA. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 30W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N30W...THROUGH 32N33W 23N37W AND 10N39W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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