[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W
TO 5N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N18W 5N21W 3N26W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1S27W AND 3S33W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 20W...AND
FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 45W AND
54W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT EASTERN
TEXAS COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...INTO THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS...INTO
MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO 30N97W AND TO THE TEXAS/
MEXICO BORDER THAT IS NEAR 27N99W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT
60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 25N TO 29N. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE TEXAS
GULF COAST FROM 27.5N TO 29.5N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
90W FROM GUATEMALA TO 27N. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...
FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...AND THE
AREAS OF 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 95W TODAY...AND TO THE EAST OF 85W FOR
24 HOURS AFTER 17/1200 UTC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THIS IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COLD FRONT THAT CONSISTS OF CURVES THROUGH
32N46W TO 26N46W AND 20N50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 20N50W TO 16N60W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 16N60W TO
14N70W AND 13N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 42W
AND 46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE LINE FROM 16N60W...ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS...TO 14N70W 13N81W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.68 INCHES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS...AND THE SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO
12 FEET...IN THE AREAS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N...AND
TO THE NORTH OF 11N/12N TO THE EAST OF 82W...DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
A 32N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N53W...23N55W
23N69W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT CURVES THROUGH 32N46W TO 26N46W AND 20N50W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N50W TO 16N60W.
A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 16N60W TO 14N70W AND 13N80W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...WITHIN
60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 24N46W TO 20N50W
17N56W BEYOND 16N61W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS...AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO
13 FEET...RELATED TO THE COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N46W
16N60W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N20W. BROAD CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N TO 32N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 35W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N25W...THROUGH 32N32W 25N35W
AND 15N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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