[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N19W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO 01N43 TO 01S47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO
BUILD EASTWARD FROM TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS FILTER DOWN TO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED W OF 90W IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT AS
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO FUEL A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
THE ASSOCIATED ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...WITH SE WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS GRADIENT WILL THEN RELAX SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD OFF
THE SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT DUE TO EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EASTERN VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
THIS IS RESULTING IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 62W-78W. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST TRADES
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER NE FLOW
EXPECTED TO BLEED THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGE SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS E OF
80W OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 35N67W TO 28N77W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W TO 24N60W TO
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED SE OF THE FRONT FROM 23N58W TO 20N63W
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD S-SE AS A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N75W IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
IN AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAKNESS WITHIN
THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 28N80W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COVERING THE
AREA FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 73W-81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ONGOING IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA COAST. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE
INFLUENCE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES
NEAR 36N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

HUFFMAN



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