[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0415 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREA OF
GUINEA NEAR 9N13W...TO 6N17W...TO 1N26W AND 1N28W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 1N28W TO 2N36W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W.
THE ITCZ EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN
20W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...FROM A TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 30N...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT USED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
THE BULLETIN AREA. RETURN FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 84W. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWS THAT
EAST0-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN
8 FEET.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF
THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE AREA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF JAMAIACA NEAR 18N78W TO 13N81W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 26N70W TO 21N71W...STILL JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. ANY PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
NEAR 77W. NO SUSTAINED 20 KNOT WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT3 AND MIAHSFAT2
BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W
20N60W...INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM 28N TO 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N70W TO
21N71W...STILL JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 29N57W


A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 26N70W TO 21N71W...STILL JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS 75W/76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 32N TO THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS
SINKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS FROM 30N TO 33N
BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE 32N54W 26N57W STATIONARY
FRONT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED. IT HAS
BEEN OVERTAKEN BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
32N58W TO 28N68W TO 27N76W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N18W TO 19N25W AND 15N29W. NO
SURFACE FEATURE ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BROAD
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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