[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREA OF
GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 3N17W AND 1N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
1N27W...TO 2N33W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...TO 2S38W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF 7N
TO THE EAST OF 22W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS 75W/76W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM 32N TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE 26N95W 21N93W SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11/0000 UTC HAS
DISSIPATED. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 28N91W. NO SUSTAINED 20 KNOT WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT4 AND
MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...
THROUGH 20N70W...TO 25N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N57W
24N65W 21N68W 20N76W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. PARTS
OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THE
GREATER ANTILLES...ARE COVERED BY THIS FEATURE. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N.
SURFACE NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS OCCURRING TO
THE WEST OF 80W APPEARS TO BE PUSHING SOME AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ONSHORE FROM NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS.
NO SUSTAINED 20 KNOT WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT3 AND MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS
FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
60W AND 90W...EVENTUALLY CURVING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST OF
70W...AND EASTWARD TO THE EAST OF 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 70W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS 75W/76W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM 32N TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATERS FROM
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE 32N54W 26N57W
STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED.
IT HAS BEEN OVERTAKEN BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO
THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 28N68W TO 27N76W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N18W TO 19N25W AND
15N29W. NO SURFACE FEATURE ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net