[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 62.3W AT 29/2100 UTC OR
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NW AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 61W-64W. A
BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER THAT
EXTENDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 45 NM OF 21N59W 18N60W
16N63W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 43.6W AT 29/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... OR
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING
NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 39W-46W. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 10N31W TO 4N34W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THIS RELATIVELY LOW-LATITUDE WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CYCLONIC
TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
AXIS BETWEEN 31W-36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
31W-36W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO
12N26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN
22W-29W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 39W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR
30N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS S
OF 31N E OF 100W. A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 27N92W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HIGH. FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 90W-99W. ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S FLORIDA...AND W
CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF.
EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND 10-15 KT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
PANAMA TO BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY 10 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
70W-75W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN
74W-79W. TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORMS OPHELIA AND PHILIPPE SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 33N26W TO 29N40W MOVING SE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT. A
1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N27W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
OPHELIA TO MOVE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DIP FURTHER SE INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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