[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 60.6W AT 28/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVING N-NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
OPHELIA IS BEING SHEARED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE CENTER FROM
14N-24N BETWEEN 58W-61W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 39.7W AT 28/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
PHILIPPE IS BEING SHEARED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
18N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF
THE CENTER FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 38W-41W. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N29W TO 4N30W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. THIS RELATIVELY LOW-LATITUDE WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-35W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
12N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
18W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN
35W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES
FROM N GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. PREFRONTAL SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE N GULF WATERS N OF 29N FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO E LOUISIANA. A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND
FAIR WEATHER ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN
92W-96W MOVING E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY. INLAND PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALSO NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...JAMAICA...ANS CUBA.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SE OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
73W-76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 61W-64W ADJACENT
TO THE CONVECTION DUE TO OPHELIA. LASTLY WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA
FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN
71W-79W. TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORMS OPHELIA AND PHILIPPE SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 34N40W TO 33N58W MOVING SE. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 40W-43W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N20W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA TO MOVE N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
DIP FURTHER S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net