[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 35.1W AT 27/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 640 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 6
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PHILIPPE HAS BECOME SHEARED
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TO THE W OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 31W-34W.

A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANT LOW OF OPHELIA...IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 56W-61W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 48W BETWEEN 11N-16N MOVING W
5-10 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMING LESS DEFINED IN
THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND WITH LITTLE CLOUD SIGNATURE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA NOT ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 21W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST E OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EXTENDING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GULF N OF 25N
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS INLAND STRETCHING
FROM NE GEORGIA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA/TEXAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE N OF GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS AT 27/0900 UTC FROM SW GEORGIA JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE
FLORIDA TO ALONG THE FLORIDA W COAST TO NEAR FORT MYERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA N OF 24N. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE S GULF ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM 22N90W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND OVER THE REMINDER OF THE GULF.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW GULF FRI AND EXTEND FROM FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS SAT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N W OF
77W TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SMALL UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE TIP OF NE NICARAGUA/NE HONDURAS AND COUPLED WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN AND S NICARAGUA 11N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 75W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 71W-75W. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATE WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF OPHELIA EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLANDS FROM SAINT LUCIA TO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN
UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA WILL
MOVE NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WED BEFORE TURNING
MORE NORTHERLY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR
23N79W TO BEYOND 32N76W PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N79W TO BEYOND 32N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A
LINE FROM THE E TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
24N76W TO 28N78W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
32N71W ALONG 25N71W TO OVER THE MONA PASSAGE PRODUCING
SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 66W-70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 65W-73W.
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 30N55W AND PROVIDING DRY STABLE AIR
OVER THE THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN
58W-80W ANCHORED BY 1019 MB HIGH JUST SW OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE E ATLC TO 18N BETWEEN 25W-50W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N29W TO
25N36W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 23N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1022 MB HIGH NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA
WILL MOVE NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WED BEFORE
TURNING MORE NORTHERLY CONTINUING N THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC
POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NW ATLC FRI.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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