[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Sep 25 03:44:58 CDT 2011
WTNT41 KNHC 250844
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011
OPHELIA REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NOW DISPLACED ABOUT 200 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER LATER
TODAY...OPHELIA WOULD LACK THE NECESSARY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF AT LEAST 20 KT...DUE IN PART
TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OPHELIA...IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROHIBIT STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. IF
OPHELIA SURVIVES BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE AS SUGGESTED BY THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS.
THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WESTWARD SINCE IT HAS BECOME
DECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE FUTURE TRACK OF OPHELIA WILL DEPEND ON ITS
VERTICAL COHERENCY. MOST OF THE MODELS...WHICH SHOW OPHELIA AS A
RELATIVELY DEEP CYCLONE...TURN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS MODEL...HOWEVER...KEEPS A
SHALLOWER SYSTEM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OPHELIA...THE GFS SOLUTION IS
PREFERRED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THAT
MODEL AND THE SHALLOW BAM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 18.4N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 19.1N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 19.9N 61.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 20.7N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 21.4N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 22.8N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 25.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 27.0N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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