[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 250833
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

PHILIPPE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS
WIDENED AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND DEEPENED.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED AND
NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS PHILIPPE
REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS PHILIPPE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THIS LESS
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL MODEL.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT TO
THE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE RIDGE WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE PHILIPPE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WAS NUDGED WESTWARD AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 12.0N  29.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 12.8N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 13.9N  33.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 14.9N  34.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 16.2N  35.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 18.5N  37.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 22.0N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 25.0N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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