[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N38W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM
10N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
5 TO 10 MPH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W
TO 10N25W...TO 12N34W...TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 12N38W...TO 14N44W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 40W
AROUND THE LOW CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN
20W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE U.S.A MIDWEST...REACHING
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...EVENTUALLY TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO CENTRAL
TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 88W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE
EAST OF 88W. THIS PRECIPITATION ALSO IS OCCURRING ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE AREA FROM BELIZE TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 20N
BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N70W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N76W...ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA...TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 19N84W...SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N62W...
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N65W...INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 11N66W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W.
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN THE TROUGHS. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF
70W...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 62W AND
73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W...FROM 13N TO 21N IN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. ISOLATE MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 15N...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH
11N75W...9N80W...BEYOND WESTERN PANAMA AND THE PANAMA BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N70W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N76W...ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA...TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 19N84W...SOUTHERN MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N73W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N73W TO 29N78W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 31N80W OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF CUBA TO
THE WEST OF 70W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS
RELATED TO A MIXTURE OF THE WEATHER PHENOMENA THAT ARE IN THE
AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N62W...TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N65W...INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 11N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 73W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
31N31W...CURVING TO 27N37W 21N40W 13N46W. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 18N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THIS LOW CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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