[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N36W.
THIS LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N25W TO A SECOND 1009
MB LOW NEAR 12N36W TO 10N40W TO 9N49W. THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH NO
INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 16W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 18W-30W...FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN
30W-40W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ALONG THE COASTS
OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA MOVING E. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS N
OF 28N BETWEEN 88W-96W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER S
FLORIDA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER S
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N89W TO 15N93W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT E-SE
WINDS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF COAST FROM TEXAS TO
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 15N83W TO
10N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-14N BETWEEN 80W-84W TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 20N66W TO
14N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 61W-66W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO S
COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
77W-84W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE
SURFACE TROUGHS TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA
FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 79W-81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM THE BAHAMAS AT 28N76W TO E CUBA AT 22N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO
27N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 34W-37W. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 17N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW TO 21N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 40W-44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net