[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N20W. THE LOW CENTER
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W...TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N20W...
TO 11N33W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
10N37W...TO 8N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N44W TO 8N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
12N20W 9N30W 7N40W 6N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 2N
TO 9N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. CONFLUENT SURFACE WIND FLOW IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W...AND RAINSHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N69W TO 29N73W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS BELIZE...INTO SOUTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND 81W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WATERS...AND THEN IT SWINGS NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE UPPER
TEXAS GULF COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARED POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 86W AND 96W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N69W TO 29N73W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS BELIZE...INTO SOUTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N58W 15N59W...ACROSS
BARBADOS...TO 11N60W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM TRINIDAD
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC WAS 1.29 INCHES. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
NOW IS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION IS AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N62W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 22N64W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
19N65W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TOWARD THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 68W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR PUERTO RICO FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED
AT 17/1200 UTC WAS 0.29 INCHES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM PUERTO
RICO TO 26N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 76W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST
OF 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 85W FROM 14N IN NORTHERN
NICARAGUA TO 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE WEST
OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N69W TO 29N73W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS BELIZE...INTO SOUTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA.  UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH AND
THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 34N36W CYCLONIC
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE CUBA COASTAL WATERS TO 29N BETWEEN
69W AND 80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR
34N36W...TO 21N43W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 23W AND 50W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 30N33W TO 28N38W AND
28N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 26N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N11W TO
30N14W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 20W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE
TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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