[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 160547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 40.0N 62.0W AT 16/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 555 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 38 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 37N63W TO 42N66W. MARIA IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER AVALON
PENINSULA ON THIS AFTERNOON.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 12N22W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 9N31W
TO 8N45W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 8N45W TO NEAR 8N56W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 10N-14N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 10W-40W...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 33W-40W...AND FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S/CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS E
OVER THE GULF TO 90W WHILE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/0300 UTC
ENTERS THE GULF OVER APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ALONG 28N90W TO INLAND
OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON BAY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE FRONT TO THE N GULF
COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 21N91W TO INLAND OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF MEXICO IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 92W. ESTABLISHED
DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NE GULF AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SW FROM OVER THE E CONUS INTO
THE NE GULF BY SUN. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN AND MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S TO OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 77W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 81W-87W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N E OF 67W ACROSS WITH
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THESE UPPER TROUGHS ARE NARROWING THE UPPER
RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN
73W-80W ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 11N75W ALONG THE N COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N80W INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N
BETWEEN 76W-81W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BUILD
OVER THE W ATLC...NE OF THE AREA THROUGH MON ALLOWING TRADE
WINDS TO INCREASE OVER E CARIBBEAN THEN WILL WEAKEN SOME LATE
MON AND TUE AS POSSIBLE BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE MARIA IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 72W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT AT 16/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 32N69W TO 25N75W.
ESTABLISHED DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA  W OF SURFACE TROUGH
GIVING THE AREA REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N ACROSS THE S BAHAMA
ISLANDS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE BETWEEN 70W-77W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS TO THE
SE OF MARIA CENTERED NEAR 20N58W COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-28N
BETWEEN 52W-68W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 56W-61W AND ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND THE SE CARIBBEAN. A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 17N E OF 70W WITH A
1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
WILL SLOWLY MOVE W REACHING FROM W CUBA MON AND TO ALONG THE
FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY TUE. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S
ALONG THE UNITED STATES E COAST SAT THROUGH SUN BEFORE WEAKENING
MON AND TUE ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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