[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 150842
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2011

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
ON IR IMAGES...BUT A 0506 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER WAS
LOCATED WEST OF THE CONVECTION. IT MEANS THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL
SHEARED. LATEST T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB WERE 3.5 ON THE
THE DVORAK SCALE YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY IS OF 55 KNOTS.
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR MARIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY
BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER AND THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER
WATERS. THEREAFTER...MARIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS IT BECOMES ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

MARIA IS ACCELERATING AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS. MARIA IS
RAPIDLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. THIS PATTERN
FAVORS A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 30.2N  68.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 33.7N  66.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 39.0N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 45.0N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  17/0600Z 51.0N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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