[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 142342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 26.3N 69.3W AT 14/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SW OF BERMUDA AND 450 MI...720 KM ENE
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MOVING N AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 64W-70W. THE BROAD CYCLONIC
WIND FIELD FROM THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRAW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN
AS WELL AS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN N OF 15N
65W-71W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A FASTER
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM
SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THIS FEATURE...READ EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 16N17W ALONG A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N21W WESTWARD ALONG
11N TO W OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 10N45W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N47W TO THE EASTERN COAST
OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N44W
TO 8N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-13N E OF 25W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM
W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE VISIBLE SHOWS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PRESENT ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N E OF 92W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W THAT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
AREA...CURRENTLY OVER NW ARKANSAS...WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE N CENTRAL AND FAR NE GULF WATERS WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WHILE TROPICAL STORM MARIA CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC...THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRAW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN
66W-71W...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. WITHIN THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION...A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE COAST OF SANTO DOMINGO...DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO 14N72W. ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
CROSSES JAMAICA FROM 20N74W TO 16N79W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FOUND
WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC WATERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED
IN THE VICINITY OF MARIA...THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRAW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 65W-71W. WATER VAPOR AND
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF DRY
AIR W OF 75W MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF THIS
LONGITUDE INCLUDING THE WATERS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. FARTHER EAST...A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 22N48W WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N E OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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