[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.2N 69.0W AT 14/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 240 NM E-NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 535
NM S-SW OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NW AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN FROM 22N-23N
BETWEEN 67W-68W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N67W TO 25N68W. A BAND OF SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF
LINE FROM 19N60W 25N62W TO 28N71W. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG
90W/91W S OF 20N DRIFTING W. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
20N E OF 94W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW OFF THE COAST NEAR 11N20W
ALONG 12N30W TO 11N37W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 11N37W
ALONG 10N50W TO GUYANA SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N E OF 19W TO
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM CENTRAL LIBERIA TO THE SIERRA LEONE/
GUINEA BORDER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN
20W-34W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 54W-57W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 42W-52W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 20W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE E OFF THE E CONUS INTO THE
W ATLC COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF AND ESTABLISHING DRY STABLE AIR
ACROSS THE AREA GIVING THE GULF REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. THE ONLY SMALL EXCEPTIONS ARE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIA KEYS
AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE N GULF BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N89W.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE N GULF. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE
SAT INTO SUN OVER THE NE GULF. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE SW GULF TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES
BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 17N FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S TO OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 18N W OF 75W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 74W-83W. AN UPPER
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO AND EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N TO 78W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 85W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS PANAMA ALONG
9N81W THEN TO OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR
11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-82W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS
FORMED IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA EXTENDING FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N70W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR
12N72W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
TROPICAL STORM MARIA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM MARIA REMAINS IN THE W ATLC N OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 73W
ESTABLISHING DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA GIVING THE W ATLC W OF
75W REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SE FLORIDA AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST S OF FORT LAUDERDALE. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
STREAMING N OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC BETWEEN 59W-73W GENERATING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM MARIA. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS TO THE E OF MARIA
CENTERED NEAR 23N45W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N
OF 16N E OF 60W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W-80W WITH A 1024 MB HIGH
IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N54W. TROPICAL STORM MARIA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE N AND BE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY THU
MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL TRAIL FROM
MARIA AND EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THU AND MIGRATE
SLOWLY NW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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