[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.8N 68.5W AT 14/0600 UTC
OR ABOUT 255 NM E-NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 550
NM S-SW OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 19N67W TO 25N68W. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 19N60W 25N62W TO
27N67W. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
22N61W TO 13N61W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS
WEAKENING AS IT IS BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIA AND WILL BE DROPPED FROM
THE 0600 UTC ANALYSIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 90W S OF 20N DRIFTING
W. ANY CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE COAST NEAR 13N19W
ALONG 9N30W TO 9N41W. THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO CONVERGING NE/SE
FLOW...SO NO ITCZ AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA
INCLUDING LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE
FROM 14N30W TO 11N47W AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 53W-57W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 19W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC
COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF AND USHERING IN DRY STABLE AIR GIVING
THE GULF REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIA KEYS. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF AND AT 14/0300 UTC IS
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N89W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE N GULF THROUGH FRI. THE N
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL
MOVE INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY CAMPECHE THU AND FRI. SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE NE GULF WILL THEN STRENGTHEN SAT AND SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE GREATER
ANTILLES BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S TO OVER THE
FAR NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W-83W.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO AND EXTENDS E ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N TO 78W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF
85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND COMBINED WITH THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W AND
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N E OF 82W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 73W USHERING IN DRY STABLE AIR GIVING THE AREA W OF 75W
REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EXTREME S FLORIDA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST S OF FORT
LAUDERDALE. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING N OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 58W-72W GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING TROPICAL
STORM MARIA N OF 19N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 59W-73W. A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW IS TO THE E OF MARIA CENTERED NEAR 25N43W. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 55W AND N OF 30N
BETWEEN 50W-80W WITH A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
33N52W. TROPICAL STORM MARIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N AND BE N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA BY THU MORNING. A TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF MARIA THU AND FRI
THEN SHIFT W SAT TO JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SUN.
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S ALONG THE UNITED STATED E
COAST SAT AND SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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