[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 112036
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NATE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1600 UTC
JUST NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO AS A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM.
SINCE LANDFALL...THE WINDS OVER LAND NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN 25
KT OR LESS...SO NATE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
THIS ADVISORY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING OVER
WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS LITTLE ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NATE...AND IF THAT TREND CONTINUES THE
CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 285 DEGREES...AT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 20.6N  97.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 20.8N  98.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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