[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111224 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE AT 11/1200 UTC IS NEAR
19.4N 96.3W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 14 NM TO THE NNW OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO. NATE IS MOVING SW 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING IN THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MEXICO AND PARTS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA AT 11/0900 UTC IS NEAR 19.0N
63.7W. MARIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N42W 13N46W 9N49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 3N TO 19N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. SOME OF THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED JUST TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N82W 16N81W
12N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W. A LARGE CYCLONIC
GYRE ENVELOPS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICA COAST NEAR
20N16W...TO 14N24W ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...TO 9N29W AND 9N37W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
11N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM NATE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST
NEAR 23N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS MOVING AWAY
FROM T.S. NATE ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
SEPARATE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG
26N91W...THROUGH A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N89W...BEYOND BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM
T.S. MARIA CURVES THROUGH THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...REACHING AT LEAST 70W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N64W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ALONG 11N BETWEEN LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA AND THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W...FROM 9N
TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN
80W AND LAND. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N63W 13N64W 12N67W.
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
BETWEEN 62W AND 65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N74W
TO 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...TO 26N...BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 26N74W 24N76W 21N77W. THIS TROUGH ORIGINALLY WAS PART
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO A 27N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 20N70W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES AROUND A 27N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A GENERAL SENSE FROM 20N BEYOND 32N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVENTUALLY EXTENDS
FROM THE 27N39W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 15N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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