[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE AT 11/0600 UTC IS NEAR
19.9N 95.4W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 65 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF
VERACRUZ MEXICO. NATE IS MOVING WESTWARD 5 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING IN THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MEXICO AND PARTS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA AT 11/0300 UTC IS NEAR
18.5N 62.9W. MARIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM MARTINIQUE TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
63W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N42W 13N46W 9N49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 3N TO 19N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. SOME OF THAT
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED JUST TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N81W 15N81W
13N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 77W AND THE
LINE THAT GOES FROM COASTAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W AND CUBA
NEAR 22N80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 20N16W
14N22W 7N30W 9N37W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W...AND FROM
8N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W. WEAKENING PRECIPITATION AND WARMING
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 29W AND 35W.
ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
TO THE EAST OF 29W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM NATE IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST
NEAR 23N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS MOVING AWAY
FROM T.S. NATE ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
SEPARATE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG
26N91W...THROUGH A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N89W...BEYOND BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM
T.S. MARIA CURVES THROUGH THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...REACHING AT LEAST 70W. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N64W ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 20N70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N/12N BETWEEN
LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N75W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N62W 12N67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N74W
TO 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA TO 26N...ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS...BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
26N73W 24N75W 22N77W. THIS TROUGH ORIGINALLY WAS PART OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT NOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 31N60W TO A 27N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
20N70W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND
A 27N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A GENERAL SENSE FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE
27N39W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 15N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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