[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 090901
TCDAT2

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011
500 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES WELL ORGANIZED AND IN FACT A DRIFTING
BUOY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 968 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS.
HOWEVER WEAKENING IS INDICATED SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY
REACHING COOLER WATERS AND KATIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE HURICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT 21
KNOTS. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES....IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NO 96-HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN BECAUSE FORECAST POINTS IN THE
EASTERN HEMISPHERE BREAK A LOT OF SOFTWARE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 37.6N  67.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 39.5N  64.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 42.0N  55.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 45.5N  43.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  11/0600Z 49.5N  30.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/0600Z 56.5N  10.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  13/0600Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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