[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

KATIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATIA AT
05/1500 UTC IS NEAR 27.0N 65.9W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 600 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. KATIA IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
954 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 130 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AROUND
KATIA IS DEVELOPED ENOUGH IN ORDER TO COVER PARTS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 17N
TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 78W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN
63W AND 67W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N34W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAY BE FORMING. ADVISORIES WILL HAVE TO BE INITIATED LATER TODAY
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN GRADUALLY IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWEST 15 MPH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 3N
TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT ALL THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT SURROUNDS THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER
MAY BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE LOW CENTER.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT IS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW. AN AIR
FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...IF NECESSARY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM
MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N52W 15N51W 11N49W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 54W AND 55W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 16N17W
TO 13N20W TO 11N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS DRIVING
THE CURRENT COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO MEXICO NEAR
18N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 79W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N
BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF
67W...MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST
OF 53W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF
80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N79W 13N82W 17N84W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS TO
THE NORTH OF PANAMA...AND IT REACHES THE BORDER OF NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS...AND THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD
FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND
FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

TROPICAL STORM KATIA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...MORE OR LESS
PARALLEL TO BUT STILL ANYWHERE FROM AT LEAST 500 TO 600 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN BETWEEN
THE CIRCULATION THAT IS AROUND KATIA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A. ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST. THE TROUGH ROUGHLY PASSES THROUGH
33N69W TO 27N70W BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N42W 13N39W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N26W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 24N32W AND 15N40W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY
NOT BE EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY
IS WITH THE WAVE AND THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ASSOCIATED ONLY
WITH THE TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 53W...MOVING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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