[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KATIA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.4N 61.0W AT 05/0300 UTC OR
ABOUT 335 NM N-NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 570
NM S-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 965 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45
NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 59W-63W.

TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
05/0300 UTC. T.D. LEE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.0N 91.4W WHICH IS
INLAND OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA OR ABOUT 48 NM W-SW OF MCCOMB
MISSISSIPPI AND ABOUT 52 NM E-SE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA MOVING
E-NE AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THIS
IS THE LAST ADVISORY WRITTEN BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
PLEASE SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
TCPAT3/WTNT33 KWNH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 27W/28W BETWEEN
11N-17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THE MONSOON TROF IS VERY ACTIVE IN THE AREA JUST S OF
THE WAVE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
19N43W TO 13N41W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH DRIER AIR UNDERCUTTING THE WAVE
AXIS. WAVE IS LOCATED AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS
GENERATING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE ITSELF.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W THEN S ALONG 11N24W TO 10N31W. THE
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N BETWEEN 43W-49W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN
26W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.D. LEE CONTINUES TO GENERATE BANDS OF SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N E OF 90W AND
INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST E OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO
NE FLORIDA. AT 05/0300 UTC A COLD FRONT IS JUST TO THE W OF T.D.
LEE EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI WHERE
IT TURNS W ACROSS S TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N92W TO 22N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N AND WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 24N. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W GULF WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E GULF. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED
JUST S OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. THE REMNANTS OF LEE WILL DRIFT
NE THROUGH MISSISSIPPI MON AND ALABAMA ON TUE. THE COLD FRONT
WILL DIG SE THROUGH THE W GULF MON AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM NE
GULF TO BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NE
NICARAGUA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GIVING THE NW CARIBBEAN NE
FLOW ALOFT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 20N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 77W-86W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
ANALYZED JUST S OF CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA W OF 86W. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
DOMINATES THE E CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY E OF 70W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WHILE
HURRICANE KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NW AWAY FROM TROPICAL ATLC
EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PERSIST N OF 18N E OF 63W
THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE KATIA REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST AS
LONG-PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
THE COAST. EVEN IF KATIA DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED
STATES...THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST
COAST BEACHES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
NORTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA AND FLORIDA.
THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATIA COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E ATLC INTO THE TROPICS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N25W SW TO 15N40W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 35W-45W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E AND
CENTRAL ATLC MAINLY N OF 20N WITH A WEAKNESS SURROUNDING
HURRICANE KATIA AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N45W.
HURRICANE KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE W ATLC THROUGH
WED MOVING N OF THE AREA ON THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


WWWW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net